The Farmer's Forecast: Rain Returns This Weekend
By Nick Mikulas
Louisiana Farm Bureau News/Cenla Weather
It looks like another round of rain is on tap for Louisiana. The rain will start across north Louisiana early on Saturday, and spread southeast through the day. The best time to see moderate to heavy rainfall in most areas will be Saturday night into early Sunday. Instability should be shoved to the south as this system approaches, and that means that any sort of severe threat will be minimal at worst, and that very small threat will generally be along, and south of I-10. Rainfall totals will generally be in the 1/2 to 2 inch range, with higher totals in north Louisiana, as they will have the longest duration of rain.
Looking at the latest crop progress report, it seems that the big rain that fell earlier this month has delayed corn planting, with only 75% of corn emerging. Last year at this time, it was 97%. The rain that falls this weekend won’t help that, but it looks like after a cool start to the week, we will warm quickly into the 80s by Wednesday. I also don’t see a significant chance for rain next week, though at least some chance for at least scattered activity will show up as we get toward next weekend.
Looking further into the future, we are rapidly approaching tropical season. Here’s a link to the tropical forecast from the folks at Colorado State University. https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html. The highlights are that this looks like a very busy tropical season. The thing to remember is that, while we can get a general idea of what a season will look like, specifics are impossible. Obviously, more storms means more of a chance for a Louisiana impact. This season should have a fast start, and should continue late into the season because wind shear will generally be light, and ocean temperatures are much warmer than normal. Those two simple factors are enough to argue for a busy season, and there are many other technical factors lining up to increase confidence that this year will bring tropical trouble somewhere along the Gulf Coast. The basics of this forecast are that they are forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes across the Atlantic basin. As a frame of reference, they have never gone above 9 hurricanes forecast in a single year, so this forecast is unprecedented from that stand point. I’ll be giving frequent updates on the tropics and any other significant weather as we head toward summer. If there’s anything you’d like me to discuss in this newsletter aside from the day to day forecasting stuff, please reach out to me at nick@cenlaweather.com. I’m open to ideas! Here’s hoping you have a safe and productive week!