Active Hurricane Season Threatens Louisiana's Coast
By Keely Ana Strickland
Louisiana Farm Bureau News
Hurricanes are a regular threat to the Gulf Coast, and while it is important to plan and prepare, there is little for Louisianians to do except react to the aftermath of these storms. For the past 29 years, Colorado State University’s meteorological team has released a tropical forecast for the Atlantic. This year, CSU is predicting 23 named storms, 11 of which they believe will be hurricanes.
“These are the biggest numbers they’ve ever put in a preseason forecast,” said Dr. Steve Caparotta, Baton Rouge Meteorologist. “Adding a little perspective on that, 23 named storms is what they’re calling for. That would take us through our entire list of names and beyond. We only have 21 names on our list.”
Dr. Caparotta said the likelihood of 11 hurricanes is motivation enough to stay vigilant over the course of the summer months.
“It’s a big heads up,” Dr. Caparotta said. “Although the forecasts don’t tell us exactly where the storms will end up, when you throw more darts at the board, you’re going to hit the target eventually.”
Dr. Paul Miller with LSU’s College of the Coast and Environment said this year’s conditions are similar to those in 2005. That year alone, 15 hurricanes swept across the Atlantic, one of those being Hurricane Katrina.
“We’re going to be transitioning from an El Niño state, which is where we currently are, into more of a La Niña pattern,” Dr. Miller said. “The La Niña pattern favors a more active hurricane season.”
Associate Dean Dr. John White at LSU’s College of the Coast and Environment said that erosion is inevitable within Louisiana coastal systems. Regardless of the forecast, hurricane season is bound to cause land loss and devastate coastal farmers.
“We lose 55 square kilometers a year,” Dr. White said. “Whether we've had hurricanes or not, that's sort of our average loss. That's like losing the city of Lafayette every two and a half years.”
Dr. White explained that if a hurricane hits Lake Charles, the erosion rate will increase by 60% because a larger wind field causes larger waves. However, a direct hit could wipe out stretches of wetland.
One of the biggest coastal barriers against storms are healthy, luscious plants that tightly grip the soil. This year, Louisiana experienced one of the worst droughts in the state’s history. Dr. White says It is too early to know if the barrier has been weakened as a result.
“We had the same drought level here last year, and we’re still waiting to see if the plants are going to be able to withstand it,” Dr. White said. “It does appear that the salinity is starting to drop in the soils, so we’re hopeful that it doesn't cause a large loss of plants. The roots of the live plants are holding everything together.”
Coastal reinforcement is of the essence and the work that is being done to strengthen it is an ongoing process.
“They’re planning to build the mid-Barataria sediment diversion at a cost of over $2 billion to provide that sediment subsidy to help the marshes,” Dr. White said. “You can also use nature based solutions. For example, people are building oyster shell reefs. If put down in front of the marshes, they will slow the wave energy down.”
While CSU’s forecast is not specific to Louisiana, it provided a glimpse into the foreseeable future. In May, LSU will release a forecast with more gulf-specific results. The Louisiana Farm Bureau Disaster Response Committee has urged parish Farm Bureau leaders to meet with their parish’s emergency operations directors and get to know them before disaster strikes.